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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 16 September 13
WHAT RECOVERY MEANS FOR THE CAPESIZE MARKET - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: The simple fact that capesize rates have been able to increase above the $9,000/mark and become much more responsive to changes in car ...
Monday, 16 September 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: STABLE TO STEADY
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Monday, 16 September 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAP STRUGGLING TO FINDS THE RIGHT PATH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 0.75 percept month on month on Friday 13 Septe ...
Sunday, 15 September 13
CAPE FREIGHT RATES RISE ON HIGH DEMAND AND TIGHT AVAILABILITY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The BDI, Cape and Panamax indices are continued to rise and saw a steep surge with average index in these segments up around 25 pct w ...
Friday, 13 September 13
US COAL OUTPUT SLIPS 3.34% ON-WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.20 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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