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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 13 September 13
DIRECTOR GENERAL OF MINERAL AND COAL OF INDONESIA REVISED UP COAL PRICE REFERENCE TO US$ 76.89
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised up its owned coal bench mark price by US$ 0.19/ MT to US$ 76.89 for September 2013 deliveries ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
PANAMAX : PACIFIC ROUNDS ARE NOW REPORTED BETWEEN USD 13K AND 15K PER DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore is a key support SE Asia/Feast rate at the moment; vessel in N.China were fixed around USD 11-12k, ships in mid China can expect a ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
CAPESIZE MARKET WILL BECOME EVEN TIGHTER - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com : While it is no secret that current capesize availability has become tight and has caused capesize rates to surge, availability is set ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET RALLY COMES AT A GOOD TIME FOR MOST SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest surge of the dry bulk market has helped offset other lingering factors, which otherwise, could have plunged freight rates to new lows. Fo ...
Wednesday, 11 September 13
ASIA - PACIFIC THERMAL COAL MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN NEXT 12 MONTHS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says the Asia-Pacific thermal coal market will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months because strong production has b ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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