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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 05 December 13
PANAMAX : THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
It has been an active week for the Supramax and Handysize segment. USG is almost boiling and charterers looking to cover their December stems ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS VOLUME AND REVENUE IN OCTOBER MARCHED TOWARDS NORTH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $1.76* billion worth of ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
WEST AUSTRALIA IRON ORE FIXTURES ALSO CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A STEADY FLOW OF BUSINESS FOR CAPES - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has reversed course this past week, bringing back some of the lost excitement of the past month, as all size segments climbed hi ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
THE BUYERS' DEMAND IS CONTINUOUSLY BULLISH - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The very low rates that prevailed for the bigger part of 2013 seem to have prepared the ground for buying opportunities for shipping investors. The ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
SGX AND CFA TO COLLABORATE TO DEVELOP DERIVATIVES MARKETS IN CHINA AND SINGAPORE
Singapore Exchange (SGX) and the China Futures Association (CFA) are cooperating in the development of derivatives markets in China and Singapore.
...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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