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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 07 December 13
A RARE TIME IN RECENT SHIPPING MARKET HISTORY: BOTH DRY BULK AND VLCC TANKER EARNINGS ARE ON THE RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Around this time of year, back in 2008, i.e. five years ago, the shipping markets were plagued with the aftermath of the global financial crisis tha ...
Friday, 06 December 13
INDONESIAN PARLIAMENT REJECTED A GOVERNMENT PROPOSAL TO EASE THE BAN ON EXPORTING UNPROCESSED ORE
COALspot.com: Indonesian House of Representatives rejected a proposal from Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik on to ease the ban on ex ...
Friday, 06 December 13
THE MINISTRY OF ENERGY & MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA FIXED DEC'13 HBA AT US$ 80.31
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 2.18 / MT ...
Friday, 06 December 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 82.8 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN NOVEMBER 2013
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 06 December 13
PANAMAXES HAVE BEEN THE ' WEAPON OF CHOICE' BY MOST DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Low ship prices, the direct consequence of subdued freight rates for the larger part of 2013 have been the main driving force behind this year's ag ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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