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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 28 February 13
SHIP OWNERS EXPECTED TO FACE A CHALLENGING YEAR, DESPITE THE FALL OF NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tonnage oversupply and a lagging growth in world trade demand are expected to keep shipping in the "red", despite a series of measures ado ...
Thursday, 28 February 13
PANAMAX : MARKET HAS SEEN A GOOD UPTURN OVER THE LAST WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 11k. The ...
Wednesday, 27 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 0.358 MILLION MT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,178,869 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 25 February 2013, Newc ...
Wednesday, 27 February 13
NEWLEAD HOLDINGS LTD. ANNOUNCES COAL SUPPLY AND DELIVERY CONTRACT
NewLead Holdings Ltd. yesterday announced that the Company has signed an agreement to supply and deliver 1.48 million metric tons of steam coal to a ...
Tuesday, 26 February 13
10TH CLEAN COAL FORUM WILL BE HELD ON JUNE 2013
CDMC Events will be presenting the 10th Clean Coal Forum 2013 on June 13 - 14, 2013 in Beijing,China.
It will make you understand regulatory asp ...
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- The University of Queensland
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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