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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 19 May 13
COAL PRICES ARE SLUMPING DUE TO WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have gained 0.03 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment g ...
Sunday, 19 May 13
FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN UNSTABLE AND VOLATILE - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com – The freight remained weak this week with all the segments down.
The BDI, the Baltic Dry Index is a number issued daily by th ...
Friday, 17 May 13
US COAL PRODUCTION CLIMBED 3.35 PER CENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 18.50 million short tons (mmst) in a week (For the week ended May 11, 2013), EIA said in its late ...
Thursday, 16 May 13
PANAMAX: THE FORWARD CURVE IS FALLING GRADUALLY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remained quiet. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 11k. The Pacific market remained uncertain as ...
Tuesday, 14 May 13
KALIMANTAN COAL
Press Release : After a very successful conference in 2012, the second annual event will address latest market developments and address the future p ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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