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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 22 August 13
PANAMAX : PERIOD MARKET IS STILL BEING LED BY STRONGER SENTIMENT IN THE FFA'S - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
This week started slowly as expected. Indo biz now rate APS around 7k +60k to china and around 8k+80k to India. However, there are some ships ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time ar ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
RATES FOR CAPES MOVED DECISIVELY NORTH THIS WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com - Right when the BDI seemed ready for another dive below the 1000 points level, the Dry Bulk market made significant comeback this week ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL 19.15 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 19.15 per cent week on week to 2.39 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
CAPESIZE RATES MORE SENSITIVE TO DEMAND - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
COALspot.com : Approximately 71.50 million tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports, 900,000 tons (-1%) less than a week ago, Commodore R ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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