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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 20 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW HEIGHTS THIS WEEK STANDING AT THREE-YEAR HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The biggest rally of the dry bulk market in more than three years have brought back joy among ship owners, especially those active in the Capesize m ...
Friday, 20 September 13
US COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 20.30 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 20 September 13
COLOMBIA SHIPPED 31.14 MILLION TONS OF THERMAL COAL IN H1
COALspot.com : Colombia’s coal exports fell by 20.59 percent in June 2013 compared to Colombia’s May's export of 7,633,579 MT.
Colom ...
Thursday, 19 September 13
CAPESIZE : AVERAGE DAILY EARNINGS HAVE GAINED ALMOST USD 6K WOW - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The rates in Feast are still firm this week even the activity calmed down a bit as chrtrs are not in a rush to cover even their end Sept carg ...
Wednesday, 18 September 13
IRON ORE AND ZINC ARE BEST PERFORMING MINING SECTORS IN CURRENT LOW PRICE, HIGH COST ENVIRONMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
With the fall in commodity prices, cash margins in the mining industry have come under pressure. Accordingly, producers and investors are placing in ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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