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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 30 May 13
HANDY: RBCT ROUND WAS AROUND USD 9K + 300 BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
THE Atlantic market remained flat. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacific market remained quiet with no ...
Wednesday, 29 May 13
SHIP OWNERS KEEP ON SPENDING ON NEWBUILDINGS AS PRICES ARE DEEMED TOO LOW TO RESIST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It's been yet another week on increased newbuilding ordering activity with Hellenic ship owners appearing rathe active, on the back of attractive f ...
Tuesday, 28 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 9.76 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 27 MAY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,420,366 tons of coal for week ended 0700 hours 27 May 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. said ...
Sunday, 26 May 13
AMPLE SUPPLY, LOW DEMAND KEEP COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.07 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment los ...
Friday, 24 May 13
ENGAGEMENT WITH POTENTIAL STRATEGIC AND OFF TAKE PARTNERS ACCELERATING - REALM RESOURCES
COALspot.com - Following the recent completion of the Feasibility Study, the Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has focused on securing strategic ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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