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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 09 June 13
IRON ORE DEMAND: WEAK; COAL MOVEMENT: STEADY TO INDIA AND CHINA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with BDI up by 0.37 per cent closed at 812 points this week.
The Cape index was also ended in ...
Friday, 07 June 13
MEDITERRANEAN COAL MARKETS
Press Release: 3rd International Conference Mediterranean Coal Markets will be held on 16-17th of September 2013, Istanbul, Turkey, Ceylan Intercont ...
Friday, 07 June 13
US'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED BY 0.54 PER CENT THE WEEK ENDED JUNE 1
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.60 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 06 June 13
WE ARE SEEING SOME FRESH INDO COAL TO CHINA AND INDIA - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic, the Gulf remains firm for the next week with a few orders in the market. The Supramaxes are seeing around low 20k for fronth ...
Wednesday, 05 June 13
DON'T AVOID PAYING COAL ROYALTY TO THE GOVERNMENT - INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER
COALspot.com – “Every country has the right to make policies to protect their national interests”, Energy and Mineral Resources Mi ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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