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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 12 June 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIDES TO 2013 LOW
COALspot.com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference continues to take its lumps this month, dropping about 0.54 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ENDED 11 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,104,509 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 11 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.03 percent week on week but gained 0.07 pe ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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