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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 28 April 13
PANAMAX FREIGHT COULD BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This BDI closed slightly lower at 871 points (down by 1.91 pct) mainly due to drop in the Panamax index by almost 10 pct.
Th ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
HANDY : SLIDING ; PANAMAX : POSITIVE ; CAPESIZE : STILL ON ITS KNEES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets started sliding with no fresh cargoes seen in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Black sea-Feast was at USD 11 ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
2ND CHINA INTERNATIONAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - 2nd China International Shale Gas Summit, 10-13 September 2013 | Chengdu, China
*The largest annual event for the shale gas indus ...
Friday, 26 April 13
LIMA SUMMIT IN JULY TO HIGHLIGHT LATIN AMERICAN MINING POTENTIAL
COALspot.com - Latin American mining industry officials and their private sector counterparts will be gathering in Lima, Peru on July 1-2 for the La ...
Wednesday, 24 April 13
FUTURE US POWER MARKET SHARES OF COAL, NATURAL GAS GENERATORS DEPEND ON RELATIVE FUEL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com - In recent years, in US, natural gas competed more effectively with coal as a fuel for electricity generation as the cost of operating ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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