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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 28 April 13
PANAMAX FREIGHT COULD BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This BDI closed slightly lower at 871 points (down by 1.91 pct) mainly due to drop in the Panamax index by almost 10 pct.
Th ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
HANDY : SLIDING ; PANAMAX : POSITIVE ; CAPESIZE : STILL ON ITS KNEES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets started sliding with no fresh cargoes seen in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Black sea-Feast was at USD 11 ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
2ND CHINA INTERNATIONAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - 2nd China International Shale Gas Summit, 10-13 September 2013 | Chengdu, China
*The largest annual event for the shale gas indus ...
Friday, 26 April 13
LIMA SUMMIT IN JULY TO HIGHLIGHT LATIN AMERICAN MINING POTENTIAL
COALspot.com - Latin American mining industry officials and their private sector counterparts will be gathering in Lima, Peru on July 1-2 for the La ...
Wednesday, 24 April 13
FUTURE US POWER MARKET SHARES OF COAL, NATURAL GAS GENERATORS DEPEND ON RELATIVE FUEL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com - In recent years, in US, natural gas competed more effectively with coal as a fuel for electricity generation as the cost of operating ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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