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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 03 May 13
SHIP OWNERS ARE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRY BULK CARRIER NEWBUILDINGS ONCE MORE: IS THERE ANY RATIONALE? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market remains heavily oversupplied and just as the orderbook of newbuildings had began to shrink, it seems that sh ...
Wednesday, 01 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.14 PER CENT MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,997,729 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 29 April 2013, Newca ...
Tuesday, 30 April 13
KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL TO START PRODUCTION FROM EARLY 2014
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced the completion of the Feasibility Study for its 51% owned Katingan Ria thermal co ...
Monday, 29 April 13
FIRST TRADES OF SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com - The SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap went live for clearing on SGX-DC today with a total volume of 25,000 metric tonnes (25 lots). ...
Sunday, 28 April 13
SUB BIT INDONESIA COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average May 2013 delivery has gained 0.34 percent and CFR South China coal shipment gai ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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