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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 03 May 13
SHIP OWNERS ARE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRY BULK CARRIER NEWBUILDINGS ONCE MORE: IS THERE ANY RATIONALE? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market remains heavily oversupplied and just as the orderbook of newbuildings had began to shrink, it seems that sh ...
Wednesday, 01 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.14 PER CENT MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,997,729 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 29 April 2013, Newca ...
Tuesday, 30 April 13
KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL TO START PRODUCTION FROM EARLY 2014
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced the completion of the Feasibility Study for its 51% owned Katingan Ria thermal co ...
Monday, 29 April 13
FIRST TRADES OF SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com - The SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap went live for clearing on SGX-DC today with a total volume of 25,000 metric tonnes (25 lots). ...
Sunday, 28 April 13
SUB BIT INDONESIA COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average May 2013 delivery has gained 0.34 percent and CFR South China coal shipment gai ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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