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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 22 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET RISE, BUT OUTLOOK SEEN DIM ON THE BACK OF RECORD NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been under hefty pressure since the start of the year, as a result of record newbuilding deliveries and below-par demand for ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
LITTLE IMPACT FROM DISSOLUTION OF BP MIGAS ON INDONESIAN OIL & GAS COMPANIES - FITCH
Fitch Ratings has said that the recent court order to abolish the Indonesian upstream oil and gas regulator, BP Migas, has minimal immediate impact ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY SECURES FIRST COAL OFF TAKE CONTRACT
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy Limited (ASX:OEG) has announced that it has signed a coal sales contract with an Indonesian steel manufacturing compan ...
Tuesday, 20 November 12
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT HAS LOADED 13.18 PERCENT LESS COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,691,731 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 19 November 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 19 November 12
GOVT PREPARES TO FACE ANOTHER SUIT ON MINING LAW - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is gearing up to face a complaint on the 2009 Mining Law prepared by the same organization that previously brought down upstream oil ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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