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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 10 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET SLOWLY BUT SURELY REACHING CRITICAL STATUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The radical consequences of the shifts in dry bulk demand and prices, especially for the most sought after commodity, concerning the industry, i.e. ...
Monday, 10 September 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY SECURES INDONESIAN COAL TRADING LICENSE
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal producer, Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) has announced today that the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources h ...
Monday, 10 September 12
A SNAPSHOT ON THE ECONOMIC AND SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT - GOLDEN DESTINY / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The European Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged at 0.75% focusing on pushing down borrowing costs in troubled economies, Spain and Italy. ...
Sunday, 09 September 12
H213 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE TRADING HIGHER
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for October 2012 delivery lost 0.14 percent W-O-W on 7 September 2012, Friday closing but gained ...
Saturday, 08 September 12
INDO INDIA ROUTE FREIGHT FOR SUPRAMAX REMAINS STRONG - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market overall remained weak and except for cape index all other sectors were down. The biggest drop was in the Panamax s ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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