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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 13 September 12
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAY BE MORE EXPENSIVE, BUT THEY MAKE FINANCIAL SENSE SAYS ANALYSIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest trend in shipbuilding is the so called "Eco" ship, i.e. ships which offer much better fuel consumption and are more cost-effect ...
Wednesday, 12 September 12
INDIAS COALGATE: TIME FOR A ROOT CANAL
A recent report from India’s Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) pertaining to the allocation of coal blocks has created a political storm i ...
Tuesday, 11 September 12
CLOUDY AND POLICY RISK INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY
COALspot.com - Bahana Securities in its latest coal outlook, commented on the Indonesian coal market, with economic slowdown in the four largest coa ...
Tuesday, 11 September 12
SHIP OWNERS KEEN ON SECOND HAND VESSEL PURCHASES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With most ship owners back from their summer rest, things are starting to pick up again in the second hand vessel market, with more and more deals b ...
Monday, 10 September 12
TNPL, AN INDIAN PAPER MAKER IS SEEKING FOR 300K MT OF IMPORTED NON-COKING COAL
COALspot.com - Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Ltd. , an Indian paper maker, is seeking 300,000 metric tons ± 5% (In 6 Shipments about 50,0 ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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