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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 16 September 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA EXPECTED TO BE STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed with most indices closing positive except for the Panamax index.
The main sentiment seems to be ...
Saturday, 15 September 12
FINANCE MINISTRY OPPOSES TAX INCENTIVE PLAN FOR COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Finance Ministry has turned down the idea of providing a fiscal incentive to the country’s coal mining ind ...
Friday, 14 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKS TOWARDS CHINA FOR SOME POSITIVE NEWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market freight rates submerged underwater for a large part of the year, dry bulk owners are looking for some positive enhancement ...
Friday, 14 September 12
GOVT OFFERS CONDITIONAL TAX HOLIDAY TO AILING COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia reported that, acknowledging difficulties encountered by coal miners due to a p ...
Thursday, 13 September 12
PANAMAX: THE NEGATIVE TREND, POOR SENTIMENT CONTINUES - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Lack of cargoes and a growing list of available ships is causing rates to slip for all Atlantic trades.
The only trade keeping somewhat s ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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