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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 09 October 12
REALM RESOURCES RECOMMENCES DRILLING AT KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com : Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX) has announced that it has commenced work on the phase three technical programme at its Katingan Project in ...
Sunday, 07 October 12
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA FELL AGAIN IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price has lost US$ 0.17 per MT M-M.
The monthly coal referen ...
Saturday, 06 October 12
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR DECEMBER'13 DELIVERY GAINED 1.3 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery gained 0.098 percent and 0.164 percent W-W and D-D respectively o ...
Saturday, 06 October 12
FREIGHT MARKET IS LIKELY TO PICK AFTER THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market appeared to be seeing some increase BDI up by 14.23 pct closing at 875 points. The Cape and Panamax index also saw ...
Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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