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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 15 October 12
IT'S STRICTLY COME CHARTERING - CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES
The charter market is a bit of a dance between ship owner and charterer: one leader, one follower; one step, two steps, turn... The dance is symbiot ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL AND CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS: SOFT
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery lost 0.329 percent w- w but gained 0.248 percent d-d on Friday, 12 Oct ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT STEADY: PANAMAX FREIGHTS FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market saw some hectic activity in the Cape and panamax sector and quite a lot of fixtures reported.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 12 October 12
HOW REAL IS THE THREAT OF PIRACY? - BIMCO
The threat of modern piracy remains serious, regardless of its seasonal variations and the fact that it is chiefly confined to the Indian Ocean, Gul ...
Friday, 12 October 12
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES OCCUR IN THE SECOND HAND VESSEL MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although 2012 has by now evolved into one of the most challenging years for global shipping industry, ship owners are scouting the second hand ship ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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