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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 27 September 12
MINING RE-COMMENCES AT ORPHEUS' B2 EAST KALIMANTAN COAL PROJECT
- B2 project overburden removal completed and coal exposed
- Coal getting has commenced with target production of 30,000tpm
- Orpheus to re ...
Thursday, 27 September 12
HANDY: THE PACIFIC MARKET IS GETTING WEAKER WITH UPCOMING GOLDEN WEEK HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Yet another week with rates softening in all trades. Especially owners with ships open Continent struggle to find employment paying decent mo ...
Thursday, 27 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOSES STEAM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The rise of the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the dry bulk industry’s benchmark during the course of the previous week, proved to be short-lived, as ...
Wednesday, 26 September 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY REMAINS SUBDUED ON GLOBAL MARKET UNCERTAINTY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuilding ordering activity has been on the down side during the past few weeks, a trend also noticeable during the course of the past few days, a ...
Sunday, 23 September 12
AN ANOTHER UNSTABLE WEEK FOR INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 1.10 percent and 0.916 percent WOW and DOD respectively ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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