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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 29 October 12
US COAL EXPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 125 MILLION TONS THIS YEAR - EIA
COALspot.com - US coal exports are expected to reach 125 million tons this year, surpassing the old record of about 113 million tons set in 1981, sa ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS (FOB ) FOR DECEMBER 2012 DELIVERY STAYED FLAT D-D
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery flat on D-D but gained 0.38 percent on W-W on Friday, 26 October 2012, ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The Cape size sector continued to remain active with iron ore movement being steady. All other sectors were down.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 26 October 12
SHIPPING MARKETS HEADING FOR DIVISION AND MULTI-TIER WILL BECOME THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It seems that something is expected to be fundamentally different in the way that the shipping markets will be operating in the future, according to ...
Friday, 26 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON WORRIES THAT RECENT RALLY WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday as a result of a plunge of the Capesize dry bulk carriers' segment, after their latest rally. As a result, ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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