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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 04 November 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR DECEMBER' 12 DELIVERY FALLS TO $ 59.78
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery fell -1.02 percent on WoW but gained 0.08 percent on D-D on Friday, 2 ...
Saturday, 03 November 12
THE SUPRAMAX FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week the market remained soft with all the sectors soft.
The BDI and was down by 6 pct closing at 986 points. The cape index ...
Saturday, 03 November 12
DEMOLITION IS THE KEY FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the number of new building deliveries so far in 2012 already having surpassed the total of 2011, it's more than clear that the dry bulk sector ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
INDONESIA HAS REVISED DOWN ITS 2012 DOMESTIC MARKET OBLIGATION REQUIREMENT FOR COAL
COALspot.com - Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down its 2012 domestic market obligation requirement due to lower d ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
SOUTH KOREAN POWER UTILITY EWP TO PURCHASE 670,000 MT OF COAL FOR JAN - FEB 2013 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd. on behalf of Korea South-East Power Co. Ltd., Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd., Korea Midland Power Co. Lt ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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