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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 07 December 12
A NEW PHASE FOR AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES - A FITCH STREET INTERVIEW
This week Matt Jamieson spoke with Andrew Colquhoun in Fitch's Asian sovereign rating team, and Vicky Melbourne, Fitch's commodity analyst based i ...
Friday, 07 December 12
SHIPPING INDUSTRY LOOKING ON YET ANOTHER TOUGH YEAR AS WE APPROACH 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most import ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
PANAMAX : THE POSITIVE VIBES IN THE ATLANTIC REMAINS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market is still depressed with dearth of cargoes and more ships. The trips from Continent to Feast fixed around USD 12k. Trips f ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commod ...
Tuesday, 04 December 12
JATENERGY SIGNS MOU FOR INDONESIAN COAL ASSET
COALspot.com - Jatenergy Limited has announced that its fully-owned Indonesian subsidiary, PT Barata Energy (BE), has signed an exclusive, non-bindi ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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