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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 29 October 12
US COAL EXPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 125 MILLION TONS THIS YEAR - EIA
COALspot.com - US coal exports are expected to reach 125 million tons this year, surpassing the old record of about 113 million tons set in 1981, sa ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS (FOB ) FOR DECEMBER 2012 DELIVERY STAYED FLAT D-D
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery flat on D-D but gained 0.38 percent on W-W on Friday, 26 October 2012, ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The Cape size sector continued to remain active with iron ore movement being steady. All other sectors were down.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 26 October 12
SHIPPING MARKETS HEADING FOR DIVISION AND MULTI-TIER WILL BECOME THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It seems that something is expected to be fundamentally different in the way that the shipping markets will be operating in the future, according to ...
Friday, 26 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON WORRIES THAT RECENT RALLY WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday as a result of a plunge of the Capesize dry bulk carriers' segment, after their latest rally. As a result, ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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