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Tuesday, 11 September 12
CLOUDY AND POLICY RISK INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY
 COALspot.com - Bahana Securities in its latest coal outlook, commented on the Indonesian coal market, with economic slowdown in the four largest coal importing countries such as China, Japan, South Korea and India and prolonged European debt crisis and the flooding of coal supplies from non-traditional seaborne exporters such as Colombia and the US, the Indonesian coal sector remains very much an UNDERWEIGHT and we expect price under performance to persist going forward.
Indonesia, the world’s largest power plant coal exporter is suffering from low coal prices since 2Q 2012. Indonesian coal big scale producers are planning to cut down their forecasts on 2012 coal production to counter the low price as well as low demand. The producers are believe that, cutting down the coal production will help them to float until the world economy conditions as well as coal market condition turns in to positive direction.
Irwan Budiarto, an analyst from Bahana Securities commented on the recent news, " Indonesian coal miners will suffer from recent news on government's plan to raise coal royalties on Mining Business License (IUP) holders, especially for Bukit Asam, which has the largest exposure to the policy since all of its concessions are under IUPs", he said in coal outlook.
He added that, coal demand will not pick up in a meaningful manner in the near term as electricity demand from China, Japan, South Korea and India, which contribute to greater than 50% of 2011 seaborne coal trades are beginning to contract, analyst said.
We note that China’s 2Q12 economic growth was below the 8 percent y-y level for the first time since the global economic crisis in 2008-09 while India’s 2Q 12 GDP growth also decelerated to 5.5 percent y-y. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea 2Q 12 GDP were also weaker, experiencing growth of just 1.4 percent y-y and 2.4 percent y-y respectively, Indonesian based Bahana Securities said, in its latest outlook report.
According to Bahana, more damages are expected to come in 3Q-4Q 12 as heavy rains in China that boosted hydropower generation and brought down thermal power production. In the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19 -34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2 -5 percent y-y.
Bahana further said in its report, in the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19-34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2-5 percent y-y.
An analyst, Irwan Budiarto of Bahana further added, data showed that hydropower contributed 22 percent of total electricity generated in China in July 2012, while thermal power plant dipped below 80 percent for the first time since October 2010.
“ We understand that China coal imports are still growing strongly this year, however in our view this is not related to the fundamentals of coal demand but on decreasing international coal prices relative to domestic coal prices. Hence, as China’s domestic coal prices started to fall in July, we expect coal imports to decline moderately in 2H 12 as the difference between domestic coal prices and international coal prices narrows. We estimate coal price in 3Q-4Q 12 to be stable at current levels, moving in the range of USD 85-90/ton due to lack of catalysts, bringing average coal price in line with our full-year coal price forecast to USD 97/ton, Bahana noted.
The energy analysts are expecting that, the coal market will turn in to right direction around end of 1H 2013.
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Sunday, 23 September 12
AN ANOTHER UNSTABLE WEEK FOR INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 1.10 percent and 0.916 percent WOW and DOD respectively ...
Sunday, 23 September 12
INDIA IMPORTED 11.40 PERCENT MORE INDONESIAN COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 26,451,565* tons of coal in August 2012, compared to 27.88* mill ...
Saturday, 22 September 12
SOFT BUNKER PRICES KEEP INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHTS STABLE - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market overall remained buoyant with all indices up except for Panamax index. The main effect seems to be increased shipm ...
Friday, 21 September 12
SHIP BREAKING ACTIVITY REACHES NEW RECORDS, AS ALREADY 2012 LEVELS HAVE SURPASSED THE WHOLE OF 2011 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The vast oversupply of vessels, most notably in the dry bulk shipping sector, has forced ship owners to intensify their efforts towards recycling th ...
Thursday, 20 September 12
SUPRAMAX : INDO-INDIA ROUNDS WERE AROUND USD 12K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Not a bad week for Supramax tonnage, if we compare Supramax developments to the bigger size tonnage. The rates have basically remained unchan ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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