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Tuesday, 11 September 12
CLOUDY AND POLICY RISK INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY
 COALspot.com - Bahana Securities in its latest coal outlook, commented on the Indonesian coal market, with economic slowdown in the four largest coal importing countries such as China, Japan, South Korea and India and prolonged European debt crisis and the flooding of coal supplies from non-traditional seaborne exporters such as Colombia and the US, the Indonesian coal sector remains very much an UNDERWEIGHT and we expect price under performance to persist going forward.
Indonesia, the world’s largest power plant coal exporter is suffering from low coal prices since 2Q 2012. Indonesian coal big scale producers are planning to cut down their forecasts on 2012 coal production to counter the low price as well as low demand. The producers are believe that, cutting down the coal production will help them to float until the world economy conditions as well as coal market condition turns in to positive direction.
Irwan Budiarto, an analyst from Bahana Securities commented on the recent news, " Indonesian coal miners will suffer from recent news on government's plan to raise coal royalties on Mining Business License (IUP) holders, especially for Bukit Asam, which has the largest exposure to the policy since all of its concessions are under IUPs", he said in coal outlook.
He added that, coal demand will not pick up in a meaningful manner in the near term as electricity demand from China, Japan, South Korea and India, which contribute to greater than 50% of 2011 seaborne coal trades are beginning to contract, analyst said.
We note that China’s 2Q12 economic growth was below the 8 percent y-y level for the first time since the global economic crisis in 2008-09 while India’s 2Q 12 GDP growth also decelerated to 5.5 percent y-y. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea 2Q 12 GDP were also weaker, experiencing growth of just 1.4 percent y-y and 2.4 percent y-y respectively, Indonesian based Bahana Securities said, in its latest outlook report.
According to Bahana, more damages are expected to come in 3Q-4Q 12 as heavy rains in China that boosted hydropower generation and brought down thermal power production. In the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19 -34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2 -5 percent y-y.
Bahana further said in its report, in the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19-34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2-5 percent y-y.
An analyst, Irwan Budiarto of Bahana further added, data showed that hydropower contributed 22 percent of total electricity generated in China in July 2012, while thermal power plant dipped below 80 percent for the first time since October 2010.
“ We understand that China coal imports are still growing strongly this year, however in our view this is not related to the fundamentals of coal demand but on decreasing international coal prices relative to domestic coal prices. Hence, as China’s domestic coal prices started to fall in July, we expect coal imports to decline moderately in 2H 12 as the difference between domestic coal prices and international coal prices narrows. We estimate coal price in 3Q-4Q 12 to be stable at current levels, moving in the range of USD 85-90/ton due to lack of catalysts, bringing average coal price in line with our full-year coal price forecast to USD 97/ton, Bahana noted.
The energy analysts are expecting that, the coal market will turn in to right direction around end of 1H 2013.
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Sunday, 16 September 12
GLOBAL LOW DEMAND ; INDONESIA COAL AND CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIP
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 1.345 percent W-O-W on Friday, 14 September 2012, closing but gai ...
Sunday, 16 September 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA EXPECTED TO BE STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed with most indices closing positive except for the Panamax index.
The main sentiment seems to be ...
Saturday, 15 September 12
FINANCE MINISTRY OPPOSES TAX INCENTIVE PLAN FOR COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Finance Ministry has turned down the idea of providing a fiscal incentive to the country’s coal mining ind ...
Friday, 14 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKS TOWARDS CHINA FOR SOME POSITIVE NEWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market freight rates submerged underwater for a large part of the year, dry bulk owners are looking for some positive enhancement ...
Friday, 14 September 12
GOVT OFFERS CONDITIONAL TAX HOLIDAY TO AILING COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia reported that, acknowledging difficulties encountered by coal miners due to a p ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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