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Tuesday, 11 September 12
CLOUDY AND POLICY RISK INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY
 COALspot.com - Bahana Securities in its latest coal outlook, commented on the Indonesian coal market, with economic slowdown in the four largest coal importing countries such as China, Japan, South Korea and India and prolonged European debt crisis and the flooding of coal supplies from non-traditional seaborne exporters such as Colombia and the US, the Indonesian coal sector remains very much an UNDERWEIGHT and we expect price under performance to persist going forward.
Indonesia, the world’s largest power plant coal exporter is suffering from low coal prices since 2Q 2012. Indonesian coal big scale producers are planning to cut down their forecasts on 2012 coal production to counter the low price as well as low demand. The producers are believe that, cutting down the coal production will help them to float until the world economy conditions as well as coal market condition turns in to positive direction.
Irwan Budiarto, an analyst from Bahana Securities commented on the recent news, " Indonesian coal miners will suffer from recent news on government's plan to raise coal royalties on Mining Business License (IUP) holders, especially for Bukit Asam, which has the largest exposure to the policy since all of its concessions are under IUPs", he said in coal outlook.
He added that, coal demand will not pick up in a meaningful manner in the near term as electricity demand from China, Japan, South Korea and India, which contribute to greater than 50% of 2011 seaborne coal trades are beginning to contract, analyst said.
We note that China’s 2Q12 economic growth was below the 8 percent y-y level for the first time since the global economic crisis in 2008-09 while India’s 2Q 12 GDP growth also decelerated to 5.5 percent y-y. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea 2Q 12 GDP were also weaker, experiencing growth of just 1.4 percent y-y and 2.4 percent y-y respectively, Indonesian based Bahana Securities said, in its latest outlook report.
According to Bahana, more damages are expected to come in 3Q-4Q 12 as heavy rains in China that boosted hydropower generation and brought down thermal power production. In the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19 -34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2 -5 percent y-y.
Bahana further said in its report, in the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19-34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2-5 percent y-y.
An analyst, Irwan Budiarto of Bahana further added, data showed that hydropower contributed 22 percent of total electricity generated in China in July 2012, while thermal power plant dipped below 80 percent for the first time since October 2010.
“ We understand that China coal imports are still growing strongly this year, however in our view this is not related to the fundamentals of coal demand but on decreasing international coal prices relative to domestic coal prices. Hence, as China’s domestic coal prices started to fall in July, we expect coal imports to decline moderately in 2H 12 as the difference between domestic coal prices and international coal prices narrows. We estimate coal price in 3Q-4Q 12 to be stable at current levels, moving in the range of USD 85-90/ton due to lack of catalysts, bringing average coal price in line with our full-year coal price forecast to USD 97/ton, Bahana noted.
The energy analysts are expecting that, the coal market will turn in to right direction around end of 1H 2013.
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Sunday, 16 September 12
GLOBAL LOW DEMAND ; INDONESIA COAL AND CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIP
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 1.345 percent W-O-W on Friday, 14 September 2012, closing but gai ...
Sunday, 16 September 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA EXPECTED TO BE STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed with most indices closing positive except for the Panamax index.
The main sentiment seems to be ...
Saturday, 15 September 12
FINANCE MINISTRY OPPOSES TAX INCENTIVE PLAN FOR COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Finance Ministry has turned down the idea of providing a fiscal incentive to the country’s coal mining ind ...
Friday, 14 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKS TOWARDS CHINA FOR SOME POSITIVE NEWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market freight rates submerged underwater for a large part of the year, dry bulk owners are looking for some positive enhancement ...
Friday, 14 September 12
GOVT OFFERS CONDITIONAL TAX HOLIDAY TO AILING COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia reported that, acknowledging difficulties encountered by coal miners due to a p ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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