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Tuesday, 11 September 12
CLOUDY AND POLICY RISK INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY
 COALspot.com - Bahana Securities in its latest coal outlook, commented on the Indonesian coal market, with economic slowdown in the four largest coal importing countries such as China, Japan, South Korea and India and prolonged European debt crisis and the flooding of coal supplies from non-traditional seaborne exporters such as Colombia and the US, the Indonesian coal sector remains very much an UNDERWEIGHT and we expect price under performance to persist going forward.
Indonesia, the world’s largest power plant coal exporter is suffering from low coal prices since 2Q 2012. Indonesian coal big scale producers are planning to cut down their forecasts on 2012 coal production to counter the low price as well as low demand. The producers are believe that, cutting down the coal production will help them to float until the world economy conditions as well as coal market condition turns in to positive direction.
Irwan Budiarto, an analyst from Bahana Securities commented on the recent news, " Indonesian coal miners will suffer from recent news on government's plan to raise coal royalties on Mining Business License (IUP) holders, especially for Bukit Asam, which has the largest exposure to the policy since all of its concessions are under IUPs", he said in coal outlook.
He added that, coal demand will not pick up in a meaningful manner in the near term as electricity demand from China, Japan, South Korea and India, which contribute to greater than 50% of 2011 seaborne coal trades are beginning to contract, analyst said.
We note that China’s 2Q12 economic growth was below the 8 percent y-y level for the first time since the global economic crisis in 2008-09 while India’s 2Q 12 GDP growth also decelerated to 5.5 percent y-y. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea 2Q 12 GDP were also weaker, experiencing growth of just 1.4 percent y-y and 2.4 percent y-y respectively, Indonesian based Bahana Securities said, in its latest outlook report.
According to Bahana, more damages are expected to come in 3Q-4Q 12 as heavy rains in China that boosted hydropower generation and brought down thermal power production. In the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19 -34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2 -5 percent y-y.
Bahana further said in its report, in the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19-34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2-5 percent y-y.
An analyst, Irwan Budiarto of Bahana further added, data showed that hydropower contributed 22 percent of total electricity generated in China in July 2012, while thermal power plant dipped below 80 percent for the first time since October 2010.
“ We understand that China coal imports are still growing strongly this year, however in our view this is not related to the fundamentals of coal demand but on decreasing international coal prices relative to domestic coal prices. Hence, as China’s domestic coal prices started to fall in July, we expect coal imports to decline moderately in 2H 12 as the difference between domestic coal prices and international coal prices narrows. We estimate coal price in 3Q-4Q 12 to be stable at current levels, moving in the range of USD 85-90/ton due to lack of catalysts, bringing average coal price in line with our full-year coal price forecast to USD 97/ton, Bahana noted.
The energy analysts are expecting that, the coal market will turn in to right direction around end of 1H 2013.
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Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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