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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 29 April 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to go up with the support of Panamax/Supramax and was up by 8.34 pct closing at 1,156 points.
The cape index was ...
Sunday, 29 April 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS FOR MAY 2012 DELIVERY WAS STABLE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps for May deliveries stable this week, according to DSP of SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps. In the me ...
Friday, 27 April 12
BUKIT ASAMS NET INCOME UP 14% IN 1Q 2012 (UNAUDITED)
Press Release - PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk, announced the Consolidated Financial Statements and Subsidiaries per 31 March 2012 (Unaudited).
Reve ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
AUSTRALIAS COKAL EXPANDS MET COAL POTENTIAL INTO WEST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Global metallurgical coal group Cokal Limited (Cokal) (ASX:CKA) announced today it has completed the acquisition of 75.2% of PT Silan ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
BUKIT ASAMS 1Q OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN HAS INCREASED BY 6% TO RP. 1 TRILLION
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam (Persero), the Indonesia’s state owned coal miner's 1Q, 2012 revenue has increased by 31% to Rp. 3.02 trillion ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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