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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 07 May 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL AGAIN IN MAY 2012
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall again to lowest level since January 2011 in May 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in Ma ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS SLIGHTLY DROP THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for June deliveries slightly dropped this week.
According ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES LIKELY TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The BDI remained flat this week and was up just by 1 point closing at 1,157 points.
The cape size index was up by 5.14 pct closing ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL FINALLY TO BECOME EFFECTIVE NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com - Mineral ore exporters of Indonesia ( only IUP holders) are required to obtain recommendation letter from the energy and mineral ...
Friday, 04 May 12
DEMOLITION KEY FOR DRY BULK MARKET RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The overflow of newbuilding vessels which “spilled over” into 2012 from 2011 brought the dry bulk market to a near collapse level at the ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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