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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 26 April 12
TAIPOWER TO BUY 1.15 MILLION TONS OF 5000 GAR COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.125million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open tender ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
TAIPOWER TO BUY 375,000 MT OF 4800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 375,000 metric tons of low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
ADK SHIPPED 28,000 TONNES OF COAL THIS MONTH
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) has announced that four coal barges carrying a total of approximately 28,000 tonnes of ADK (Alam Duta K ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
DRY BULK CARRIERS RENTER FLEET AFTER IDLING, ON MARKETS RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market seems to be back on track, not only solidifying the gains of the past couple of weeks, but also racing to new heights, recuperra ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
PANAMAXES AGAIN EARN MORE THAN CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest surge of demand for Panamaxes has led the dry bulk market to new higher ground on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reaching 1,090 ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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