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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 12 May 12
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS UNLIKELY TO SEE A REBOUND ANYTIME SOON - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The BDI softened this week and it was down by 1.64 pct closing at 1,138 points.
The cape index was up by 2.41 pct closing at 1,61 ...
Friday, 11 May 12
POLITICAL CHANGES COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY HALT IN SHIPPING INVESTMENTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The potential of changes of political leadership in many of the world’s leading economies could very well lead to significant shifts in the di ...
Thursday, 10 May 12
DRY BULK ERRATIC ON LACK OF DIRECTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept up its erratic behavior as it went down again during yesterday’s session, on a lack of direct guidance in terms o ...
Wednesday, 09 May 12
COAL INDIA SIGNS FSAS WITH 13 POWER UNITS SO FAR - PTI
Press Trust of India has reported that, coal India has so far entered into fuel supply pacts with 13 power units, including Reliance Power's Rosa P ...
Tuesday, 08 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR NEW DIRECTION THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the main benchmark of the dry bulk shipping industry not traded at the start of this week, traders, charterers and s ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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