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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 22 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET STEADY, AWAITING FURTHER RISE IN DEMAND WHICH IS DOUBTFUL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Traditionally, the second and third quarters of the year are the strongest for the dry bulk market, but this year, things seem to be quite subdued, ...
Sunday, 20 May 12
SPOT FREIGHT RATE DIPS FURTHER - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was marginally up by 3 points (0.26 pct) closing at 1,141 points.
The cape index was up by 1.17 pct closing at 1,633 point ...
Saturday, 19 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS DROP US$ 2.88 PMT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for June deliveries have drops this week by 3.86 percent and& ...
Saturday, 19 May 12
INDONESIAN EXPORT TAX GIVES COAL MINERS A CHEAP RIDE: ANALYSTS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Indonesia’s policy to exclude coal from an export tax that has been applied to 14 other mineral commodities h ...
Friday, 18 May 12
EXPORT TAX WILL ERODE PROFITS, INDONESIAN COAL EXEC COMPLAINS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, A 20 percent export duty the government has imposed on 14 mineral ore products will not only take a toll on mining ...
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Showing 4721 to 4725 news of total 6871 |
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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