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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 27 May 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA WAS WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall for the fourth straight week and the BDI fell by 9.38 pct this week closing at 1,034 points.
The Cape Si ...
Sunday, 27 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS HEADING TO SOUTH DIRECTION
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries have dropped this week by 5.43 percent an ...
Saturday, 26 May 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CUT BACK ON TONNAGE SUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The oversupply of dry bulk carriers has been the most prominent problem in the market today, pushing down rates and ‘strangling’ profita ...
Thursday, 24 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS ON LACK OF CHINA DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday on the back of lower Chinese demand for commodities such as coal and iron ore, typically hauled by dry bulk ...
Tuesday, 22 May 12
NEW ONE-YEAR TIME CHARTERS FOR TWO VESSELS OF EXCEL MARITIME CARRIERS LTD.
Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: EXM), an owner and operator of dry bulk carriers and an international provider of worldwide seaborne transportat ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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