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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 07 July 12
EXCESS SUPPLY & WEAK DEMAND KEEP COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps for August and Q4 deliveries slipped slightly this week. SGX’s Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swap ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
BALTIC INDEX UP ON STRONG CAPE, PANAMAX RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week all the segments were firmed up with BDI up by 15.23 pct (up by 153 points) closing at 1,157 points.
The cape index also ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET NOT ABLE TO FIND SOLID GROUND SAY EXPERTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the second half of each, traditionally looking the most active one, especially in terms of newbuildings being delivered, it's highly unlikely ...
Thursday, 05 July 12
GOVT GETS READY FOR $1.8B SUIT - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading Indonesian English new papers reported that, several ministries and the Attorney General’s Office held a ...
Thursday, 05 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET MOVES FURTHER UP THE HILL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its growth momentum by the middle of the week, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose by an additional 40 points to 1,103 p ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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