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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 01 July 12
DSP OF SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAP'S THIS WEEKS MOVEMENTS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have recovered slightly this week and Q4 deliveries are also showing positive direction.
SGX’s ...
Saturday, 30 June 12
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY TO FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 2.66 pct (up by 26 points) closing at 1,004 points crossing the 1000 point barrier this week.
The c ...
Friday, 29 June 12
INDONESIAN PRODUCERS ARE PLANNING TO CUT PRODUCTION IF COAL PRICES FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 31.54* million tons of coal in May 2012, compared to 31.86* mill ...
Friday, 29 June 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DOING THEIR MATHS BEFORE PLACING NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With oversupply having plagued the dry bulk shipping fleet since the end of 2011, it’s become ever so evident that placing a newbuilding order ...
Thursday, 28 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER ON CAPESIZE OPTIMISM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended up by 0.71% to 988 points. Most ship types were up, with the ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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