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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 01 July 12
DSP OF SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAP'S THIS WEEKS MOVEMENTS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have recovered slightly this week and Q4 deliveries are also showing positive direction.
SGX’s ...
Saturday, 30 June 12
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY TO FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 2.66 pct (up by 26 points) closing at 1,004 points crossing the 1000 point barrier this week.
The c ...
Friday, 29 June 12
INDONESIAN PRODUCERS ARE PLANNING TO CUT PRODUCTION IF COAL PRICES FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 31.54* million tons of coal in May 2012, compared to 31.86* mill ...
Friday, 29 June 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DOING THEIR MATHS BEFORE PLACING NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With oversupply having plagued the dry bulk shipping fleet since the end of 2011, it’s become ever so evident that placing a newbuilding order ...
Thursday, 28 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER ON CAPESIZE OPTIMISM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended up by 0.71% to 988 points. Most ship types were up, with the ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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