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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Monday, 07 May 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL AGAIN IN MAY 2012
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall again to lowest level since January 2011 in May 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in Ma ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS SLIGHTLY DROP THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for June deliveries slightly dropped this week.
According ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES LIKELY TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The BDI remained flat this week and was up just by 1 point closing at 1,157 points.
The cape size index was up by 5.14 pct closing ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL FINALLY TO BECOME EFFECTIVE NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com - Mineral ore exporters of Indonesia ( only IUP holders) are required to obtain recommendation letter from the energy and mineral ...
Friday, 04 May 12
DEMOLITION KEY FOR DRY BULK MARKET RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The overflow of newbuilding vessels which “spilled over” into 2012 from 2011 brought the dry bulk market to a near collapse level at the ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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