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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Friday, 18 May 12
KOREA EAST WEST POWER LOOKING FOR TOTAL 2.6 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL AT FIXED PRICE FOR 5 YEARS
COALspot.com - Korea East West Power Co., Ltd is inviting bids to supply of 520,000 Metric Tons (per annum) of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg coal of N ...
Friday, 18 May 12
NICKEL ORE CARGOES ARE NOT SEEN IN MARKET ANYMORE DUE TO ON-GOING INDONESIAN BAN - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The market remained variable.
Fronthaul voyages both from Baltic and Black Sea paid over USD 18k/day. From USG to Cont tonnage would get ...
Thursday, 17 May 12
COAL MINERS OPPOSE EXPORT TAX, SUGGEST OUTPUT QUOTA - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, coal miners have suggested that the government apply a production quota instead of implementing an export tax in ord ...
Thursday, 17 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LOOKING FOR NEW DIRECTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept on moving sideways during this week, with the mixed performance across all segments. Yesterday, the industry’s be ...
Tuesday, 15 May 12
POTENTIAL BOOM OF CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD PROVIDE FURTHER SUPPORT TO DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been moving sideways during the past week with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) losing 0.53% on th ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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