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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Sunday, 27 May 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA WAS WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall for the fourth straight week and the BDI fell by 9.38 pct this week closing at 1,034 points.
The Cape Si ...
Sunday, 27 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS HEADING TO SOUTH DIRECTION
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries have dropped this week by 5.43 percent an ...
Saturday, 26 May 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CUT BACK ON TONNAGE SUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The oversupply of dry bulk carriers has been the most prominent problem in the market today, pushing down rates and ‘strangling’ profita ...
Thursday, 24 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS ON LACK OF CHINA DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday on the back of lower Chinese demand for commodities such as coal and iron ore, typically hauled by dry bulk ...
Tuesday, 22 May 12
NEW ONE-YEAR TIME CHARTERS FOR TWO VESSELS OF EXCEL MARITIME CARRIERS LTD.
Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: EXM), an owner and operator of dry bulk carriers and an international provider of worldwide seaborne transportat ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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