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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 02 April 12
BANGLADESH EYEING INDONESIA FOR COAL
COALspot.com - The high level executives of Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) of Bangladesh is visiting Ind ...
Monday, 02 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first quarter of the New Year ended with the BDI standing 42% above from the 26 years’ bottom low of 662 points on February 1st, and a pos ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
THE BDI CONTINUED TO MOVE UPWARD - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to move upward and rose by 2.86 pct closing at 934 points.
The cape index was up by 3.14 pct closing at 1,412 po ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
SRI LANKA IMPORTS 152,555 MT OF INDONESIAN COAL IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 27.126* million tons of coal in February 2012, compared to 28.21* million to ...
Friday, 30 March 12
RECOND NUMBERS SURROUNDING THE SUPRAMAX DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Last year proved to be both a record year in the number of deliveries of dry bulkers between 40,000dwt and 64,000dwt, as well as a record year in th ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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