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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 05 April 12
COAL EXPORT TAX: MATTER OF CONCERN FOR INDIA - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Since the issuance of Indonesian Mining law in 2009, miners have increased their activities in exploring , ex ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
AKR COAL FIRST EXPORT SHIPMENT OF COAL SEABORNE
PT Anugrah Karya Raya (AKR Coal) subsidiary of PT AKR Corporindo Tbk., Indonesia’s leading integrated supply chain solutions provider and larg ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STALLS AS TREND IS REVERSED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has halted its month-long rally, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating yesterday for a second consecutive session. Industry ...
Wednesday, 04 April 12
OIL MAY JUMP TO $150PB IF IRAN ATTACKED: EXPERT - KUNA / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Prices of oil will not drop below level of $100 per barrel and may jump to $150 pb in the coming two months, according to the prominent Kuwaiti expe ...
Wednesday, 04 April 12
CHURCHILL MINING TO ACCELERATE INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION AGAINST INDONESIA
Churchill Mining plc (AIM: CHL), advises that notations on the Indonesian Supreme Court's register of cases shows the Supreme Court has rejected th ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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