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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL SUBDUED, RECOVERY NOT YET SEEN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market entered the new week after the past days of easter holidays in western countries in a subdued mood. The industry’s benchma ...
Monday, 09 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first week of April ended with the Baltic Dry Index falling below 950 points, before Catholic Easter, and capesizes showing a modest upturn with ...
Sunday, 08 April 12
CHARTER RATES COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was almost at same levels closing slightly lower by 0.64 pct at 928 points.
The Cape index was up by 6.73 pct closing at ...
Friday, 06 April 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall to lowest level since January 2011 this month. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in April fal ...
Friday, 06 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET SWIFT TO HALT FALL ON RENEWED DEMAND FOR CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk managed to put a stop to the recent falls, which came as a result of a lacklustre demand for smaller vessel sizes. Although this trend ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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