We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 04 January 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERS PICKED UP IN 2011, BUT 2012 EXPECTED TO BE A DIFFERENT STORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) starting the year on a sour note, losing 114 points and ending yesterday’s session, the first of the new year, ...
Wednesday, 04 January 12
MAHAGENCO TO IMPORT LOW MOISTURE COAL
COALspot.com - Maharashtra State Power Generation Co. Ltd. is the state power generation utility owned by Government of Maharashtra, intends to proc ...
Tuesday, 03 January 12
INDONESIA COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL AGAIN
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has sets the January 2012 coal reference price at US$ 109.29 per ton or US$ 3.3 ...
Tuesday, 03 January 12
WHICH WAY WILL THE DRY BULK MARKET HEAD ON FIRST WEEK OF THE YEAR? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Dry bulk ship owners will be wondering which way will the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, will head during the first days of ...
Monday, 02 January 12
THE PROMISE OF INDIA: A BRIEF INTERRUPTION? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Future growth in Indian seaborne coal imports has sometimes been considered as one of the largest potential upsides in the currently oversupplied dr ...
|
|
|
Showing 4901 to 4905 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
