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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 01 May 12
VIETNAM FEARS IT MAY NOT SEEK COAL SUPPLIES - TBKTSG / VIETNAMNET BRIDGE
TBKTSG / VietNamNet Bridge reported that, with five coal-run thermopower plants under construction, PetroVietnam alone would need 18 million tons of ...
Sunday, 29 April 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to go up with the support of Panamax/Supramax and was up by 8.34 pct closing at 1,156 points.
The cape index was ...
Sunday, 29 April 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS FOR MAY 2012 DELIVERY WAS STABLE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps for May deliveries stable this week, according to DSP of SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps. In the me ...
Friday, 27 April 12
BUKIT ASAMS NET INCOME UP 14% IN 1Q 2012 (UNAUDITED)
Press Release - PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk, announced the Consolidated Financial Statements and Subsidiaries per 31 March 2012 (Unaudited).
Reve ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
AUSTRALIAS COKAL EXPANDS MET COAL POTENTIAL INTO WEST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Global metallurgical coal group Cokal Limited (Cokal) (ASX:CKA) announced today it has completed the acquisition of 75.2% of PT Silan ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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