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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 08 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR NEW DIRECTION THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the main benchmark of the dry bulk shipping industry not traded at the start of this week, traders, charterers and s ...
Monday, 07 May 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL AGAIN IN MAY 2012
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall again to lowest level since January 2011 in May 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in Ma ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS SLIGHTLY DROP THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for June deliveries slightly dropped this week.
According ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES LIKELY TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The BDI remained flat this week and was up just by 1 point closing at 1,157 points.
The cape size index was up by 5.14 pct closing ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL FINALLY TO BECOME EFFECTIVE NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com - Mineral ore exporters of Indonesia ( only IUP holders) are required to obtain recommendation letter from the energy and mineral ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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