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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 22 November 12
HANDY: INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA NOW FIXED AT USD 12500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The north Continent is seeing plenty of tonnages but lack of cargoes. TA business are around 11k and fronthaul is around 17k.Tonnages has tig ...
Thursday, 22 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET RISE, BUT OUTLOOK SEEN DIM ON THE BACK OF RECORD NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been under hefty pressure since the start of the year, as a result of record newbuilding deliveries and below-par demand for ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
LITTLE IMPACT FROM DISSOLUTION OF BP MIGAS ON INDONESIAN OIL & GAS COMPANIES - FITCH
Fitch Ratings has said that the recent court order to abolish the Indonesian upstream oil and gas regulator, BP Migas, has minimal immediate impact ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY SECURES FIRST COAL OFF TAKE CONTRACT
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy Limited (ASX:OEG) has announced that it has signed a coal sales contract with an Indonesian steel manufacturing compan ...
Tuesday, 20 November 12
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT HAS LOADED 13.18 PERCENT LESS COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,691,731 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 19 November 2012, Newc ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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