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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 27 November 12
NEWCASTLE PORT HAS SHIPPED 1.79 MILLION TONS OF COAL W/E 26 NOVEMBER
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,793,841 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 26 November 2012, Newc ...
Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was buoyant this week with all sectors up except for the Cape size index. The BDI was up by 5.21 pct closing at 10 ...
Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP CONTRACTS SLIDE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for February 2013 delivery lost 0.76percent WoW but gained 0.16 percent DoD on Friday ...
Saturday, 24 November 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCES 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 31.1 million bcm* (-4.0% YoY) of Overburden in October 2012 totaled while coal production was ...
Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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