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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 16 November 12
SHIP OWNERS KEEP ON INVESTING IN SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Priced attractively, modern and with prompt delivery dates, second hand vessels are proving to be rather popular among cash-rich ship owners these d ...
Friday, 16 November 12
HANDY : IRON ORE WAS QUIET AND RATES FROM INDIA TO CHINA AROUND USD 5500
Handy
The Atlantic was weak with more supply of ships. Rates from Continent/ Feast at USD 9000 and from USG/China at USD 15k. The Pacific market re ...
Wednesday, 14 November 12
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT HAS LOADED 11.14 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,100,686 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended – 0700 hours 12 November 2012, Ne ...
Tuesday, 13 November 12
INITIAL COAL PRODUCTION AT KATINGAN RIA ON TRACK FOR 2013 FOLLOWING GRANTING OF 'IN PRINCIPLE' FORESTRY PERMIT, INDONESIA
Realm Resources Ltd (“Realm” or the “Company” - ASX: RRP) has announced that its application to upgrade its exploration fore ...
Tuesday, 13 November 12
BULK PORTS & TECHNOLOGY ASIA 2013
Press Release - TOC Events are pleased to announce a new addition to our global portfolio with the launch of the inaugural Bulk Ports & Technolo ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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