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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 30 July 13
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 MT OF 5,700 KCAL/KG COAL ON NAR BASIS FOR H1, 2014
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids for 520,000 Metric Tons (MT) of coal with calorific value 5,700 kcal/kg on NAR basis f ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.58 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,945,848 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 29 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 29 July 13
INDONESIA'S ENERGY NEEDS COULD SPELL GOOD NEWS FOR TANKER OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite abundant energy resources, Indonesia has still failed meet its own demand, which led to a rising import of crude. According to the latest we ...
Sunday, 28 July 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP SLIGHTLY FOR SEPTEMBER CARGOES
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average September 2013 delivery slightly up on day and week but fell on month on ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
CEPL INDIA TO BAG 0.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL SUPPLY ORDER FROM TNPL
COALspot.com - An India based coal trader Coastal Energy Private Limited has offered the lowest price of US$ 73.00 per metric ton for calorific valu ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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