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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 05 August 13
INDO GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED HBA IN AUGUST '13 FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY '10
COALspot. com - HBA fell to US$ 76.70 this month, the lowest since January 2010. Indonesian Coal Price Reference fell 6.11% and hitting a 2013 ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
COAL SWAP MARKET HAS LOST DIRECTION; STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average October 2013 delivery slightly down on day, week and month on Friday, 2 A ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT SOFT DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was fairly steady this week with the BDI recovering towards north since second half of the week with the support o ...
Friday, 02 August 13
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES ON RENEWED MARKET ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its positive footing this week, although it's still a far cry to deem the market situation as a growing one, especiall ...
Friday, 02 August 13
ASIA ACCOUNTS FOR 27.95 PERCENT OF US COAL EXPORTS IN Q1, 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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