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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 22 July 13
INDO COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 13 DELIVERY GAINED ON WEEK BUT LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 delivery slightly up on week but fell on day and month on Fri ...
Friday, 19 July 13
U.S.COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 19.60 MMST WEEK ENDED JULY 13
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 19.60 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 19 July 13
TNPL IS LOOKING FOR 300 K MT OF 6000 GAD COAL FOR FIVE MONTH
COALspot.com - Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Ltd. , an Indian paper maker, is seeking 300,000 metric tons ± 5% (In 5 shipments about 60,0 ...
Thursday, 18 July 13
3RD ANNUAL FLOATING TERMINALS, INDONESIA
Commercial applications for offshore transshipment facilities
Floating Terminal solutions are increasingly being deployed by miners, independent ...
Thursday, 18 July 13
THE CAPE MARKET APPEARS TO BE HOLDING FIRM - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
In the Pacific, market maintained similar levels during the week. There is several Indo coal orders in the market, ships passing Singapore fi ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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